Texas Holdem Vs Dealer Odds

Re: My road to beating ultimate texas holdem 4. Is the real deal, at least in the games I've seen. Before this year, the worst thing I've seen was (different) dealers (a) pay trips like a FH and (b) pay a Play bet when they didn't qualify (despite beating the player hand). Answer 1 of 7: We are headed down next week and the only game we really like to play is Texas Hold Em- the one against the dealer. Not against other players. Can anyone give me a list of casinoes that offer this? When I do a search, I only find poker rooms.

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Introduction

Texas Hold 'Em Bonus is a poker based table game I noticed at the Flamingo Hilton in Las Vegas in September 2005. I also hear that it can be found in Atlantic City. Like real Texas Hold 'em the player may bet his hole card, after the flop, and after the turn (but not after the river). As in one on one poker all bets pay one to one, except the ante requires a straight or flush (depending on the location) or higher to pay.

Texas Hold 'Em Bonus goes by the name of Easy Poker at the Casino Bregenz in Austria.

Las Vegas Rules


  1. The game is played with a single 52-card deck.
  2. The player makes an Ante wager, plus an optional Bonus bet.
  3. Two hole cards are dealt face down to the player and dealer. The player may look at his own cards.
  4. The player must either fold or make a Flop bet. The Flop bet must be two times the amount of the ante.
  5. Three community cards (the Flop) are dealt.
  6. The player may do nothing or make a Turn bet. The Turn bet must be exactly equal to the ante bet.
  7. A fourth community card is dealt (the Turn).
  8. The player may do nothing or make a River bet. The River bet must be exactly equal to the ante bet.
  9. A fifth community card is dealt (the River).
  10. The player and dealer each make the best five-card hand using any combination of the five community cards and his own two initial hole cards. The higher hand wins.
  11. If the dealer has the higher hand the player will lose all wagers, except possibly the Bonus bet.
  12. If the player has the higher hand the Flop, Turn, and River bets will pay even money. If the player has a straight or higher the Ante bet will also pay even money, otherwise it will push.
  13. If the player and dealer have hands of equal value the the Ante, Flop, Turn, and River bets will all push.
  14. The Bonus bet will pay based only the player's and dealer's initial cards, according to the pay table posted.

The Horseshoe casino in Hammond, Indiana, follows the Las Vegas rules. Despite what the rule booklet says, the Casino Bregenz in Austria follows the Atlantic City rules.

Atlantic City Rules


There are only two rule differences under the Las Vegas rules. The player needs a flush or higher to win even money on the ante. The bonus bet does not have a line item for both player and dealer having a pair of aces.

House Edge

The following table shows all the possible outcomes assuming optimal player strategy and the Las Vegas rules. An explanation of each column follows the table. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 2.04%. The standard deviation is 3.51.

Texas Hold 'em Bonus Return Table — Las Vegas RulesExpand

Turn BetRiver BetOutcomeWinCombinationsProbabilityReturn
NoNoDealer wins-3161919379699880.291077-0.873232
NoNoTie012592751631760.0226380
NoNoPlayer wins with less than straight253034245372000.0953380.190676
NoNoPlayer wins with straight or higher310844712100360.0194950.058486
NoYesDealer wins-413961730007000.025099-0.100394
NoYesTie01677046055360.0030150
NoYesPlayer wins with less than straight322968670620000.041290.12387
NoYesPlayer wins with straight or higher46057301841640.0108890.043556
YesNoDealer wins-418966395093560.034095-0.136381
YesNoTie01355814452880.0024370
YesNoPlayer wins with less than straight312473818804800.0224240.067271
YesNoPlayer wins with straight or higher42521409294360.0045330.018131
YesYesDealer wins-556047088273160.100754-0.50377
YesYesTie05479434476800.009850
YesYesPlayer wins with less than straight4123726571544800.2224190.889677
YesYesPlayer wins with straight or higher527478962411640.0493980.24699
Player folds-125170868800000.045249-0.045249
Total556276200480001-0.020369

Explanation of table

  • Column 1:Yes if player makes turn bet, no otherwise
  • Column 2:Yes if player makes river bet, no otherwise
  • Column 3:Outcome
  • Column 4: Net win
  • Column 5:Total combinations
  • Column 6:Probability
  • Column 7:Contribution to return (win*probability)

The lower right cell shows a house edge of 2.037%. However I think this makes the game look like a worse bet than it really is. What this means is that for every dollar bet on the ante the player can expect to lose 2.037 cents. However by the end of the hand the average wager will be 3.8181 times the ante. So the element of risk, or ratio of loss to total amount bet is a much lower 2.037%/3.8181=0.5335%. The standard deviation is 3.500839.

According to Scott McIntosh the house edge is 5.5935% under the Atlantic City rules. I trust this figure because we agree exactly on the Las Vegas rules.

Strategy

The following is when the player should fold according to the rules.

  • Las Vegas: unsuited 2/3 to 2/7.
  • Atantic City: unsuited 2/3 to 2/7, and unsuited 3/4.

I have not quantified the strategy past the first decision point. I can say that under the Las Vegas rules the player who made the Flop bet will make the Turn bet 43.13% of the time, and the River bet 48.46% of the time. If the player made the turn bet, then he will also make the river bet 85.76% of the time. If the player made the flop bet, but not the turn bet, he will make the river bet 15.78% of the time.

The following table shows the expected value of all 169 possible initial hands under both the Las Vegas and Atlantic City rules.

Two-Card Expected Values

Initial HandLas Vegas RulesAtlantic City Rules
2,3 unsuited-1.155927-1.195592
2,4 unsuited-1.091604-1.13521
2,5 unsuited-1.019987-1.067022
2,6 unsuited-1.046723-1.077817
2,7 unsuited-1.031301-1.050057
2,8 unsuited-0.896002-0.917393
2,9 unsuited-0.763132-0.784523
2,T unsuited-0.613979-0.636507
2,J unsuited-0.459414-0.478676
2,Q unsuited-0.28969-0.305687
2,K unsuited-0.102668-0.1154
2,A unsuited0.1843730.160096
3,4 unsuited-0.950034-1.009069
3,5 unsuited-0.874456-0.937452
3,6 unsuited-0.899632-0.946711
3,7 unsuited-0.8854-0.919748
3,8 unsuited-0.850607-0.872617
3,9 unsuited-0.699497-0.724139
3,T unsuited-0.549947-0.575726
3,J unsuited-0.395206-0.417719
3,Q unsuited-0.225563-0.24481
3,K unsuited-0.038499-0.054482
3,A unsuited0.2544370.226376
4,5 unsuited-0.735126-0.813569
4,6 unsuited-0.756096-0.819136
4,7 unsuited-0.740561-0.790904
4,8 unsuited-0.7068-0.744413
4,9 unsuited-0.654394-0.679669
4,T unsuited-0.487036-0.516079
4,J unsuited-0.332233-0.358011
4,Q unsuited-0.162612-0.185124
4,K unsuited0.0247990.005551
4,A unsuited0.3216420.290174
5,6 unsuited-0.614318-0.692805
5,7 unsuited-0.595481-0.661787
5,8 unsuited-0.560487-0.614096
5,9 unsuited-0.508593-0.549471
5,T unsuited-0.437507-0.467184
5,J unsuited-0.265364-0.294408
5,Q unsuited-0.095642-0.12142
5,K unsuited0.0923670.069855
5,A unsuited0.3928930.358138
6,7 unsuited-0.457726-0.536213
6,8 unsuited-0.421014-0.48732
6,9 unsuited-0.36839-0.421999
6,T unsuited-0.297258-0.339273
6,J unsuited-0.217975-0.244386
6,Q unsuited-0.031216-0.056994
6,K unsuited0.1568190.134306
6,A unsuited0.3707190.351472
7,8 unsuited-0.284039-0.362526
7,9 unsuited-0.229986-0.296292
7,T unsuited-0.157768-0.212535
7,J unsuited-0.078216-0.116966
7,Q unsuited0.019887-0.003259
7,K unsuited0.2249110.202399
7,A unsuited0.4567980.434885
8,9 unsuited-0.092377-0.170864
8,T unsuited-0.016383-0.08401
8,J unsuited0.0627090.011207
8,Q unsuited0.161440.125955
8,K unsuited0.2828090.262927
8,A unsuited0.5337160.511803
9,T unsuited0.1270270.046521
9,J unsuited0.204340.139978
9,Q unsuited0.3044650.256228
9,K unsuited0.4281870.395968
9,A unsuited0.6024070.583126
T,J unsuited0.3702790.288219
T,Q unsuited0.4716940.405776
T,K unsuited0.6002280.550453
T,A unsuited0.781940.745643
J,Q unsuited0.5355550.472903
J,K unsuited0.6657610.619251
J,A unsuited0.8524930.819462
Q,K unsuited0.7354440.6922
Q,A unsuited0.9253110.895545
K,A unsuited0.9993170.972816
2,3 suited-0.886985-0.923987
2,4 suited-0.826008-0.866658
2,5 suited-0.75798-0.801803
2,6 suited-0.782881-0.811796
2,7 suited-0.768076-0.785429
2,8 suited-0.639021-0.658814
2,9 suited-0.51015-0.529944
2,T suited-0.364595-0.385438
2,J suited-0.212709-0.23053
2,Q suited-0.044946-0.059747
2,K suited0.1411420.129363
2,A suited0.4250220.402419
3,4 suited-0.693044-0.74813
3,5 suited-0.62123-0.679983
3,6 suited-0.644776-0.688639
3,7 suited-0.631082-0.663007
3,8 suited-0.597478-0.617842
3,9 suited-0.450882-0.473684
3,T suited-0.304918-0.328768
3,J suited-0.152868-0.173698
3,Q suited0.014889-0.002919
3,K suited0.2013760.186589
3,A suited0.4906180.464512
4,5 suited-0.490199-0.563403
4,6 suited-0.509707-0.5685
4,7 suited-0.494853-0.541737
4,8 suited-0.461634-0.496581
4,9 suited-0.40913-0.432516
4,T suited-0.246108-0.272979
4,J suited-0.094025-0.117875
4,Q suited0.0738490.053019
4,K suited0.2609290.243121
4,A suited0.5535540.524295
5,6 suited-0.376191-0.449435
5,7 suited-0.357989-0.419804
5,8 suited-0.323018-0.372923
5,9 suited-0.270833-0.308801
5,T suited-0.199974-0.227429
5,J suited-0.031373-0.058245
5,Q suited0.1367450.112895
5,K suited0.3247930.303963
5,A suited0.6207670.588467
6,7 suited-0.227072-0.300316
6,8 suited-0.190276-0.252091
6,9 suited-0.137464-0.187369
6,T suited-0.066542-0.105559
6,J suited0.013273-0.011162
6,Q suited0.1976280.173777
6,K suited0.3858580.365029
6,A suited0.599820.582012
7,8 suited-0.05986-0.133104
7,9 suited-0.005551-0.067365
7,T suited0.0662870.015313
7,J suited0.1462670.110272
7,Q suited0.2460240.22461
7,K suited0.4511060.430277
7,A suited0.6829110.662637
8,9 suited0.1256480.052404
8,T suited0.2009550.13792
8,J suited0.2807950.232842
8,Q suited0.3813330.348359
8,K suited0.506560.488168
8,A suited0.7572190.736945
9,T suited0.337570.262459
9,J suited0.4162670.356253
9,Q suited0.5184070.473476
9,K suited0.6461450.616192
9,A suited0.8222760.80444
T,J suited0.5745330.497955
T,Q suited0.6770170.615537
T,K suited0.8085210.762138
T,A suited0.9902890.956538
J,Q suited0.7376660.679207
J,K suited0.8704920.82713
J,A suited1.0562111.02548
Q,K suited0.9365060.896165
Q,A suited1.1244321.096723
K,A suited1.1940241.169336
2,2 pair-0.134137-0.140431
3,3 pair0.0785840.068777
4,4 pair0.3222890.308953
5,5 pair0.5894570.572593
6,6 pair0.8374650.820601
7,7 pair1.0936691.076805
8,8 pair1.3530481.336184
9,9 pair1.6121141.59525
T,T pair1.878991.860933
J,J pair2.0974152.082887
Q,Q pair2.3158382.304838
K,K pair2.5356912.528219
A,A pair2.7888992.78206

Bonus Bet

The bonus bet pays based only on the players hole cards, and in some cases the dealer's two hole cards. Who wins the hand does not matter. There seem to be two pay tables available for the bonus bet as follows. From what I hear the Atlantic City pay table is also used in Missouri and Indiana.

Bonus Bet — Las Vegas Rules

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Player has AA, dealer has AA100060.0000040.003694
Player has AA3073440.0045210.135636
Player has AK suited2549000.0030170.075415
Player has AQ or AJ suited2098000.0060330.120664
Player has AK unsuited15147000.009050.135747
Player has KK, QQ, or JJ10220500.0135750.135747
Player has AQ or AJ unsuited5294000.01810.090498
Player has Pair 22 to 10,103661500.0407240.122172
All other-114700000.904977-0.904977
Total16243501-0.085406
Holdem

Bonus Bet — Atlantic City Rules

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
AA3073500.0045250.135747
AK suited2549000.0030170.075415
AQ or AJ suited2098000.0060330.120664
AK unsuited15147000.009050.135747
KK, QQ, or JJ10220500.0135750.135747
AQ or AJ unsuited5294000.01810.090498
Pair 22 to 10,103661500.0407240.122172
All other-114700000.904977-0.904977
Total16243501-0.088989

The lower right cells show a house edge on the bonus bet of 8.5406% under the Las Vegas rules and 8.8989% under the Atlantic City rules.

6-Card Bonus


Some casinos add on a side bet known as the 6-Card Bonus. This side bet is found on multiple poker-derivative games, so I created a special page for it. For more information, please see my page on the 6-Card Bonus.

C5


Calculate Poker Odds Texas Holdem

At the Casino Bregenz in Austria, where the game goes by the title Easy Poker, they add a side bet called the C5, which is based on the poker-value of the player's seven-card hand. The following return table shows a house edge of 8.95%.

C5

EventPaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
Royal flush 100 4,324 0.000032 0.003232
Straight flush 60 37,260 0.000279 0.016710
Four of a kind 40 224,848 0.001681 0.067227
Full house 8 3,473,184 0.025961 0.207688
Flush 6 4,047,644 0.030255 0.181530
Straight 4 6,180,020 0.046194 0.184775
Three of a kind 2 6,461,620 0.048299 0.096597
All other -1 113,355,660 0.847300 -0.847300
Total 133,784,560 1.000000 -0.089540

Methodology


A brute force approach was used to cycle through all possible cominations of cards. In total 7,089,794,712,000 hands were played out, requiring 72 days of computer time to loop through them all.

Acknowledgements


I would like to thank Scott McIntosh of Online Poker Room Reviews for his contributions to this page. He confirmed my Las Vegas results and provided the Atlantic City house edge and expected values. His program runs in six hours compared to the 72 days mine takes, so I was happy to use his numbers. For reviews and advice on playing poker online I encourage you to visit his web site.

Texas Holdem Vs Dealer Odds Game

Links


There is a good Texas Hold 'Em Bonus calculator at beatingbonuses.com.

Analysis at ReviewPokerRooms.com.

  • Poker Guide
    • Learn to Play Poker: Getting Started
    • Poker Game Variations
  • Texas Hold ‘em Guide
    • Learn to Play Texas Hold ‘em
    • Hold ‘em Gameplay
    • Texas Hold ‘em Strategy
      • Beginner Hold ‘em Strategy
      • Intermediate Hold ‘em Strategy
  • Blackjack Guide
    • Learn to Play Blackjack
    • Blackjack Dealing
    • Blackjack Strategy
    • Blackjack Resources
  • Roulette Guide
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    • Roulette Strategy
    • Roulette Types and Variations
    • Roulette Resources
  • Slots Guide
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    • Slots Games and Variations
    • Slots Tips

Once you familiarize yourself with basic Texas Hold ‘em play, hand rankings and dealing, you should learn about the odds and probabilities associated with different aspects of the game. While it may be impossible to calculate precise odds mid-hand, particularly given you’ll never see your opponents’ cards until all decisions have been made, knowing when to play (and when not to play) different hands typically requires more than just good instinct.

In Texas Hold ‘em, winners are often decided before the community cards are even laid out, so the chances of being dealt a strong starting hand is something many players think.

Calculating Texas Hold ‘em Odds

To understand the odds of drawing any particular starting hand, you’ll have to consider all of the factors that go into the deal of a hand. Considering a shuffle to completely randomize the order of the cards, the biggest factors that will affect a draw are the number of players at the table and your own position relevant to the dealer. Also consider that there are four cards of any given value in each deck and there are 169 different hole card combinations. That being said, there’s a roughly one in 1326 chance that players will be dealt any specific hand, so it’s important to know what kind of odds you should keep in mind whenever you step to the poker table.

Pre Flop

You have a 55:1 chance of being dealt a pair of Jacks or higher.

Your Texas Hold’em experience will begin with your hole cards, and while you cannot change the cards that are dealt your way, it’s good to know what to expect. While World Series of Poker reruns may make it seem like someone at the table will be dealt pocket kings every hand, starting with a monster hand is rarer than you may imagine. For more on Pre Flop strategy see our guide here.

Quick Odds

While an extensive list of the probabilities for preflop hands could fill a book, here are some quick odds to consider when you’re peeking at your cards for the first time.

  • Being dealt a pocket pair: 16:1
  • Being dealt suited cards: 3.2:1
  • Being dealt suited connectors: 24:1
  • Being dealt AK: 82:1
  • Being dealt two cards of jack or higher: 10:1
  • Being dealt AA, KK, QQ or JJ: 55:1

The Flop

The flop is a game changer in every sense of the words. With more cards in your hand, players will get their first real taste of what the final outcome will look like. That being said, players will want to think about the odds for how their hand could turn out before they start placing or calling bets. For more on Post Flop strategy see our guide here.

Quick Odds

Though the presented odds may be mathematically accurate, they do present a best case scenario that you won’t always find yourself in at the table. These calculations don’t take into account the probabilities of the card or cards you are looking for turning up as burn cards or in your opponents’ hands, so keep that in mind when considering your next move.

  • Hitting a pair on the flop: 2:1
  • Pocket pair improving to three of a kind on the flop: 7:1
  • Flop being three of a kind: 424:1
  • Odds of flopping a flush with suited hole cards: 118:1

The odds of flopping a straight can be a bit harder to pin down. Depending on your starting hand, there are any number of card combinations that could lead to a flopped straight. Those hands that have the more flexibility when it comes to straight draws, particularly middling connectors (those between 5 and 9), have the strongest chances of hitting on the flop because there are more cards that could allow for their straight to hit. The wider the gap between your starting cards, the worse your chances are.

Pot Odds In Texas Holdem

The Turn and River

Naturally, as the hand progresses and fewer cards remain to be dealt, the odds of making any particular hand become slimmer and slimmer. That being said, you’ll want to look at the odds for a hand from beginning to end as well as those from stage to stage.

Quick Odds

Your odds change as each new card is dealt.

Odds Of Poker Hands In Texas Holdem

Over the course of a full hand, these scenarios could play out

Texas Holdem Vs Dealer Odds Online

  • One pair on flop improving to two pair or a set by the river: 4:1
  • Catching an ace on the turn or river: 7:1
  • Open ended straight hitting by the river: 2:1
  • Gutshot straight draw hit by the river: 5:1
  • Pocket pair improving to set by river: 10:1
  • Going runner runner for a flush: 23:1
  • Going runner runner for a straight: 67:1

Pot and Implied Odds

In addition to the odds that your cards will pair or better, experienced players know that pot odds, that is, the ratio of the size of the pot to the cost of a call, play an important role in proper Hold’em strategy. With all of the risks that are inherently involved in games like poker, players won’t get far if they don’t decide to gamble every so often – and pot odds allow you to make smarter decision when it comes time to place your money on the line. Pot odds take into consideration the likelihood of making a hand to establish a decent risk vs. reward ratio.

Another important statistic for players to keep in mind is ‘implied odds,’ which factor in the likely size and frequency of any betting that may come in later rounds of play. These come into play post flop and will be a factor until the river is dealt, and unlike most other Texas hold ’em odds, implied odds will be entirely based on your read on your opponents’ betting habits and aggression.

Texas Holdem Vs Dealer Odds Free

To calculate effective pot odds, consider your position in the hand and relative strength, then make a note of the amount of money currently in the pot. If you’re in a position to call, think of how much you stand to win should your hand come out ahead, as establishing a solid return on investment can help turn a questionable call into a big win. If no one has bet, then pot odds can help you deduce what size bet you will want to make in order to shift the statistical probabilities in your favor. With a sound bet, you could either make the continued investment not worth the potential gain or place a value wager designed to elicit a call from any remaining opponents. You will have to decide whether or not your chances of winning are worth risking the amount you could lose if you are wrong – a fine line for some players, but one that must be crossed often. For more on Texas Hold’em pot size and strategy see our guide here.